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Prime minister Rishi Sunak appeared to blame claimants for high taxes and high migration numbers as he set out his five point plan for welfare reform in a speech given yesterday at the right-wing think tank, the Centre for Social justice, founded by Iain Duncan-Smith.

The five welfare reforms the Conservatives will introduce if they win the election are:

• the WCA will be made harder to pass;
• GPs will no longer issue fit notes;
• legacy benefits claimants will move to UC sooner and work requirements will be increased;
• PIP will no longer always be a cash benefit and fewer people will be eligible;
• DWP to be given powers to seize goods, arrest claimants and impose fines.

Irresponsible burden

In his speech, Sunak claimed that there 850,000 more economically active people in the UK since the pandemic, due to long-term sickness.

He argued that the country “can’t afford such a spiralling increase in the welfare bill and the irresponsible burden that would place on this and future generations of taxpayers.”

 As well as increasing taxes, the rising number of claimants is to blame for high migration numbers according the prime minister:

“We can’t lose so many people from our workforce whose contributions could help to drive growth.  And there’s no sustainable way to achieve our goal of bringing down migration levels, which are just too high without giving more of our own people the skills, incentives, and support, to get off welfare and back into work.”

Sunak went on to set out five welfare reforms the Conservatives intend to introduce in the even that they win the next election.

Reform 1:  the WCA will be made harder to pass

Sunak argued that in 2011, only 20% of those assessed under the work capability assessment (WCA) were found to be unfit for work.  But the figure now is 65%.

“That’s wrong. People are not three times sicker than they were a decade ago.” Sunak argued.

The solution is to make it harder to pass the WCA, something the government is already drawing up plans to do.

“So we are going to tighten up the Work Capability Assessment such that hundreds of thousands of benefit recipients with less severe conditions will now be expected to engage in the world of work – and be supported to do so.”

Reform 2:  GPs will no longer issue fit notes

The Conservative’s attempts to replace the sick note with the fit note, which says what work you can still do with support, has been an abject failure.

94% of fit notes still sign people off completely.

So, now the Conservatives plan to stop GPs issuing fit notes altogether and give the job to people who may not even be medically qualified:

“So we’re also going to test shifting the responsibility for assessment from GPs and giving it to specialist work and health professionals who have the dedicated time to provide an objective assessment of someone’s ability to work and the tailored support they need to do so.”

A consultation on reforming the fit note process was launched yesterday and will run until 8 July 2024.

Reform 3: legacy benefits claimants will move to UC sooner and work requirements will be increased

Sunak announced that “we’ll accelerate moving people from legacy benefits onto Universal Credit, to give them more access to the world of work.”

The DWP have since used X (formerly Twitter) to reveal that

“The Prime Minister’s welfare reform speech earlier today announced the acceleration of the Managed Migration of legacy ESA/ESA & HB cases to #UniversalCredit. All migration notices will now be sent by the end of December 2025. We will work with stakeholders on the detailed plans.”

The rules around UC and work should also be tightened according to Sunak.

Instead of nine hours, “Anyone working less than half a full-time week will now have to try and find extra work in return for claiming benefits.” 

In addition, “Anyone who doesn’t comply with the conditions set by their Work Coach such as accepting an available job will, after 12 months, have their claim closed and their benefits removed entirely.”

Reform 4: PIP will no longer always be a cash benefit and fewer people will be eligible

Sunak claims that spending on PIP will increase by 50% over the next four years unless the rules are changed.

He argues that whilst some people need money for aids such as handrails or stairlifts “Often they’re already available at low cost, or free from the NHS or Local Authorities.  And they’re one-off costs so it probably isn’t right that we’re paying an ongoing amount every year.” 

In addition, claimants with mental health conditions are to be targeted because “for all the challenges they face it is not clear they have the same degree of increased living costs as those with physical conditions.” 

In fact, Sunak wonders if these claimants should be given money at all:

“And we’ll also consider whether some people with mental health conditions should get PIP in the same way through cash transfers or whether they’d be better supported to lead happier, healthier and more independent lives through access to treatment like talking therapies or respite care.”

Sunak announced that a consultation will be launched in the next few days to decide how to stop the PIP assessment system being “undermined by the way people are asked to make subjective and unverifiable claims about their capability.”

The government wants to see more medical evidence required to substantiate a claim and “a more objective and rigorous approach that focuses support on those with the greatest needs and extra costs” with a limit on “the type and severity of mental health conditions that should be eligible for PIP.”

Reform 5:  DWP to be given powers to seize goods, arrest claimants and impose fines

Sunak announced that the Conservatives are preparing “a new Fraud Bill for the next Parliament which will align DWP with HMRC so we treat benefit fraud like tax fraud with new powers to make seizures and arrests. And we’ll also enable penalties to be applied to a wider set of fraudsters through a new civil penalty.”

In other words, the DWP will be able to search claimants homes, seize possessions such as computers and mobile phones, arrest claimants and impose fines.

The plan to give the DWP police powers is something we have been warning about for some time.

Will any of this ever happen?

These plans are largely based on the Conservatives winning the next election.  There is no indication that any of them will be supported by Labour if they win.

Of them all, the one most likely to come about whatever the election result is the earlier date for moving income-based ESA claimants to UC.  The move was delayed by the government until 2028/29 in a bid to save money and the pause was never popular with the DWP, who would prefer to complete the process in one go.

There is a real possibility that whichever party is in power next, they will decide that yet another change of date will cause too much confusion.

For the rest of the reforms, the best we can say is that when it comes to voting, claimants now have  a clear picture of what the Conservatives have planned for them - even if Labour’s intentions are still unclear.

You can read the full text of Sunak’s speech here.

You can read more about the PIP changes and find out how to take part in the consultation here.