esa

Derek4 wrote:

Hi Dave and Andy

You appear to have misunderstood my post. I was not suggesting that Rave has a 50% or 90% chance but simply giving a mathematical example of how you chances of keeping benefit diminish through retesting.

If you have a 50% chance of winning a game, you have a 50% chance of winning the second game but have a 25% chance of winning both games.

If you have two ESA medicals within three months, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that your health is unlikely to be all the better for completing the first WCA process, you need to pass both tests to hang on to your benefit. Therefore the more you are tested the lesser chance you have of keeping your benefit.

Regards

Derek

the stats show a 50% ish chance of passing a medical, a lot of the people that have lots of medicals (not all) are being retested because they are expected to be better

you have to step back from "forum world" as people on here are ones who are getting too many medicals but are no better, many not on froums will be the ones who are getting better

have you the stats or maths to show how you came to your "mathematical example"

0.5²=0.25 (25%)

0.5⁶=0.015625 (1.56% approx)

Derek4 wrote:

0.5²=0.25 (25%)

0.5⁶=0.015625 (1.56% approx)

I see where your coming from, but disagree given the shortage of mods I will just add look at the latest stats

originaldave wrote:

following on from my last post and looking at the people who pass a medical the numbers are such the DWP could get rid of Atos and evryone who needs a medical could get a coin tossed heads you pass tails you fail and if it ends up standing on its end you get the support group

This seems an excellent suggestion, and from what i have been reading, would be just as effective as using (don't give) Atos.

It would also save the Taxpayers & Goverment Millions..

I'm sure there will be many aplications for the Job of Senior Tosser..

originaldave wrote:

Derek4 wrote:

0.5²=0.25 (25%)

0.5⁶=0.015625 (1.56% approx)

I see where your coming from, but disagree given the shortage of mods I will just add look at the latest stats

Hi Dave

You're entirely missing the point of my post.

All I'm saying is that it is harder to pass two medicals (or six in the example) than it is to pass one. You don't need stats to realise that. The 50% was just an example to illustrate the point.

Regardless of what chance you have of passing, and each individual will have a different chance, your chances of keeping benefits diminish the more you are tested.

Regards

Derek

Derek4 wrote:

originaldave wrote:

Derek4 wrote:

0.5²=0.25 (25%)

0.5⁶=0.015625 (1.56% approx)

I see where your coming from, but disagree given the shortage of mods I will just add look at the latest stats

Hi Dave

You're entirely missing the point of my post.

All I'm saying is that it is harder to pass two medicals (or six in the example) than it is to pass one. You don't need stats to realise that. The 50% was just an example to illustrate the point.

Regardless of what chance you have of passing, and each individual will have a different chance, your chances of keeping benefits diminish the more you are tested.

Regards

Derek

I don't agree I know many people who have had a few medicals and have never had a problem

I have filled in 4 IB50s and never even been called for a medical

given the number of times they are teting most people now how come there is anyone left on esa?